Too Much Depth? Sorting the Logjam

Defenceman Mike Komisarek, outside of his natural habitat for the upcoming season, known as 'the press box.'

After today's cuts, the Toronto Maple Leafs are left with 29 players in training camp. With a week remaining, six more cuts will have to be made; roughly one goaltender, two blueliners, and three forwards.

Forwards

Up front, the Leafs top six is pretty much set in stone, with the Lupul-Connolly-Kessel and Kulemin-Grabovski-Macarthur lines making up the Leafs top two lines. Where the competition ensues, however, will be in the bottom six. As James Mirtle notes, improving the offensive depth on these two lines will be where the playoffs are won or lost:

While Toronto’s top four forwards in Phil Kessel, Nikolai Kulemin, Mikhail Grabovski and Clarke MacArthur contributed 112 goals – 53 per cent of the team’s total – the rest of the group had just 66 on the season.

That’s a stark contrast from last season’s playoff-bound teams. The top four forwards on the eight Eastern Conference playoff teams averaged 103 goals last season – slightly less than the Leafs – but had far more depth, getting an average of 111 goals from their other forwards.

The Leafs certainly have more to work with than they did last year. It appears more likely by the day that offseason acquisition Matt Lombardi, and the emergence of young players Nazem Kadri and Matt Frattin.

Where things get confusing, however, is who stays and who goes. With a 23-man roster, it's likely that Wilson will carry twelve forwards and keep two more in the pressbox. While Mike Brown is injured, there may be some reprieve; however, even then, you still have the likes of Kadri, Frattin, Lombardi, Colby Armstrong, Tyler Bozak, Phillippe Dupuis, Darryl Boyce, Joey Crabb, Colton Orr and Jay Rosehill. Of these ten players, only six will get opening day spots, while one will be sent to the pressbox, and three more will be cut.

In a perfect world, it should be Colton Orr who is sent to the pressbox. He is an enforcer whose skill set doesn't extend beyond beating the crap out of other teams' enforcers. That said, (1) he's good for about 5 points a season, if that; (2) he is a weak skater who is terrible in his own zone; (3) the Leafs have Rosehill, who can take on the enforcer role and is better at #2 than Orr. He could be kept as a 13th forward a la enforcers like Brian McGrattan, Matt Carkner and Deryk Engelland, but should not be a mainstay on the roster.

With a recovery from concussion, it's speculated Lombardi will be pencilled in as a 4C to work his way up in minutes, and Armstrong will be on the third line. Since Crabb has contributed next to nothing in camp, he'll be an easy cut to make. As for Frattin, he's shown some serious skill, but could benefit from a year in the AHL. How it should play out (though with Burke and Wilson's man love for Orr, I doubt it will):

Kadri-Bozak-Armstrong

Dupuis-Lombardi-Boyce/Frattin

EX: Orr

Eventually, I think Lombardi and Bozak will switch lines at centre when he is healthier. Also, I'd put Frattin at the top of the list for injury callups when the inevitable occurs. That said, he could be a solid contributor to some much needed offence on the 4th line when called up.

In any event, the goal should be to produce a fourth line similar to the mold of the Boston Bruins Thornton-Campbell-Paille line, that checks well, produces energy and can generate some offence. Enforcers like Orr and Rosehill are nice on occasion, but drastically deprive the Leafs of offensive depth that will be key to making the playoffs.

Defence

Also at question is what will happen on defence. There are spots for six blueliners and one extra, leaving two more players to be cut. Guaranteed locks for the roster are Dion Phaneuf, Luke Schenn, John-Michael Liles and Cody Franson. Beyond that, however, there are more questions than answers.

Also competing for spots are young players from last year's roster, such as Carl Gunnarsson, Keith Aulie, and Matt Lashoff. Questions also circulate around veteran Mike Komisarek, who has had anything but a successful two seasons in Toronto, and young Jake Gardiner, who has impressed the Leafs brass at camp.

Again, speculating what will happen is a lost cause, so the best I can do is tell you what I think should happen. Gardiner is a tough decision to make, but I believe getting top pair minutes with the Marlies is best for his career. Jumping from NCAA hockey to a rigorous, physically demanding 82-game schedule cannot be understated and time in the AHL could facilitate a smooth transition. That said, Gardiner should be kept as the top injury callup, and if he's solid enough with the Marlies, I could see such a callup being permanent.

Beyond that, Lashoff has had a very weak camp, leaving no justification to keep him with the big club. The reason that he was a fixture on the Leafs last season (i.e. that he wasn't Brett Lebda) is no longer valid. And Komisarek, despite whatever assets he may have as a locker room leader, just lacks the skill to be a regular roster player. If the Leafs are to ice the best blueline possible, there is no way Komisarek should be on it.

As for who will be around, I'm among the many who believe Carl Gunnarsson is greatly underrated and ready for bigger minutes. I also think Keith Aulie, while looking decent with Phaneuf, could benefit from a more sheltered role. Moreover, if Gardiner was to likely take anyone's job, my money's on Aulie.

Gunnarsson-Phaneuf

Liles-Schenn

Aulie-Franson

EX: Komisarek

Goaltending

The easiest decision to make has been saved for last. There's no question that James Reimer will be the starting job, and, 4-0 loss to the Flyers aside, he looked on par with Ryan Miller in a game against Buffalo where he posted a 2.00 GAA and .939 SV%. The major question in net has been between Jonas Gustavsson and Ben Scrivens for the backup position. Gustavsson had a terrible season last year, and Scrivens has looked good in what time he has seen in the preseason.

While some may look for Scrivens to steal the backup job, cap realities (such as Gustavsson having to go on waivers), make it very likely that the Monster will be given every chance to redeem himself. While I am still doubtful as to whether he can do this, he's been decent enough this preseason to warrant another chance. At a bare minimum, if Gustavsson proves to be abyssmal again this season, there should be enough faith in Scrivens to make the switch; but, in the meantime, Scrivens could benefit from more starts with the Marlies.

Reimer

Gustavsson