So, yesterday, the Leafs needed two simple things to happen:
1) For the 2nd place Flyers to beat the bubble Rangers, a team that until yesterday, Philadelphia had been 4-1-0 against this season, and has experience beating in important games.
2) For the Sabres and Hurricanes, who, much to the Leafs misfortune, had to play each other right now, to do something, anything, but end up in a three-point game. Who was the more preferable winner depended on what happened to the Rangers, but either way, the winner barely affected the outcome. The most important priority was that this game not get past regulation.
So, guess exactly what frickin happened yesterday?
This playoff chase (and ensuing failure) has been the best and worst to watch as a Leaf fan. Never since the lockout have I seen the Leafs simply, time and again, defy the odds of probability. Okay, so yes, it's not exactly the first time since the lockout the Leafs have been in the hunt for a playoff spot, but you're pretty much delusional if you can draw any parallel to those teams and this one.
Yes, in 2005-06, the Leafs made a huge run in the last 14 or so games of the season. But, unlike this year's team, which began surging in the New Year, this team's problem was the opposite; they were in a playoff position until they essentially just decided to take a two-month vacation through to mid-March to essentially knock themselves way out of contention. By the time J.S. Aubin suddenly decided he was going to be a crazy, Michael Leighton-esque flash-in-the-pan phenom around late March, and the Leafs went on an ensuing tear, it was too little, too late. They had two games against Montreal they needed to win to ensure a chance in March 2006, and blew chunks in both of them. They were pretty much shit outta luck DOA at that point, regardless of what they did after.
And, sure, in 2006-07, the Leafs came down to the last day. Hey, they won the big game against Montreal! And, sure, the Isles went on a freak run, and eliminated our boys in blue and white in a shootout on the last day of the season! We were THAT CLOSE!!!!!!11
Well, that's all well and good, if you discount the fact that one big game against the Habs was the only big frickin game they won all year. Anyone remember how game #81 went? Oh, right; the Leafs had a chance to ice the surging Islanders for once and for all....and they fucked it up royally. And I'm not even going to bother to mention blowing a 4-1 third period lead to the Sabres to lose 5-4 in regulation. That still is one of my worst memories as a Leaf fan to date. And I watched the Canes win the 2002 Eastern Conference Finals in person, so that says a lot.
Worst of all, that playoff faux pas that let the Islanders into 8th actually fooled JFJ to think Jason Blake was worth pissing away $4M a season on. If we hadn't flipped him and ToskaLOL for a half-working goalie that is well past his 'best before' date, I'd still be a little pissed about that, actually.
And better yet, you know how the Leafs 'won the big game'? Just barely. It seemed like Andrew frickin Raycroft was determined to singlehandedly lose that game for the Leafs, and the team in front of him was equally willing to aide and abet him. Suddenly, a change in goalie and late 2nd period goal later, the team finally shows some fucking hustle. So, while, yes, that was by far the happiest game I've ever watched as a Leaf fan post-lockout, it's not exactly something to be overly proud of (except for knocking the Habs out of the playoffs in the process. That was pretty awesome).
Point is, why is this team different? Because they actually win those big games. Look at March; three make-or-break games against Buffalo and Carolina; three victories. February? Bad 6-2 loss to Buffalo, but another win over Carolina, and another win over Buffalo. The only poor outing against a bubble team this season has been against the Rangers, but they haven't faced the Leafs since a 7-0 embarrassment on Jan. 19, and prior to that, October. So they've lacked the 'big game' value that these Sabres and Hurricanes games have.
Even better, remember how people were saying the Leafs could only lose once in regulation in their final nine games? Since people started saying that, they've lost exactly once! Sure, it included wins against lowly teams like Colorado, Ottawa, and Minnesota, but also some clutch victories against Buffalo and Boston. Even the one loss against a strong Detroit team was a respectable effort; it's not, like, say, letting a team two points behind you in the standings walk all over you.
But, that's the good news. Now for the bad news.
See, the 2006-07 Islanders had it easy. They had epic chokejobs like the Leafs and Habs in front of them, dropping points like DJ Pauly drops the beat- pathetically and sloppily. This pretty much enabled them to amass a hot streak, and throw down the gauntlet to surpass both teams for 8th place. Granted, they went on a tear that eluded most laws of probability, but you're silly if you don't honestly think Montreal and Toronto did a terrific job of leaving the barn door wide open for them to do that.
Funny thing is, somewhere around mid-March, the Leafs, having been in the hunt since late February, said "FUCK MATH" and made their own attempt to do the same thing. Problem is, unlike the Islanders four years ago, the Leafs haven't had the fortune of every team in front of them just deciding to actually play hockey whenever they felt like it.
Since an embarrassing loss to a Tampa Bay team that can score and finally learned how to play goalie, the Leafs have been 7-2-0. One would think that would be enough of a hot streak to make some headway in the standings. Key word: you would think.
But, since that date (Mar. 14), Buffalo, then 8 points ahead, have gone 6-3-0 and seem practically incapable of losing to teams that aren't the Leafs. Even after Leaf fan prayers got answered and a plague of injury was brought about on Ryan Miller by the hockey gods, the Sabres have won 2 of 3! The Rangers, who looked like a joke for February and early March, started rattling off wins in mid-March, giving them a 10 point lead over Toronto. They've gone 6-2-1 since Mar. 14. Carolina? 6-2-1, too!
Yes, Toronto is the hottest of those four teams in that time span, but the problem is that it isn't by a whole hell of a lot. All three teams in front of the Leafs keep winning and winning; more importantly, they keep winning the important games- i.e. the ones that would give the Leafs any hope of playing themselves into 8th, a la the 2007 Islanders.
And it also seems like any time the Leafs do come within significant striking distance, it gets pissed away when one of those three teams- usually the Sabres or Rangers- manages to pull a win out of their ass, regardless of who they play. Playing the Senators or the Capitals? Doesn't make a difference. Down 2 goals after two periods, or up 2? Makes no difference. These teams just won't stop frickin winning. And good on them, since that'll give fans in Buffalo and NYC a much more enjoyable April than I had cheering on that half-baked 2006-07 team.
Where does that leave us, then? Well, slice it how you want; I'll believe until the bitter end, but deep down, I know it: we're fucked. Pretty much fucked. For any remote chance at the playoffs, the Leafs need to win all of their last 3 games. Then, they need to hope for either Buffalo or the Rangers to lose all 3 of their games. And if that isn't enough, they also need to pray that, should that happen, Carolina doesn't win more than one of its games!
Now, you've seen the numbers. Do I believe the Leafs have what it takes to keep winning right now? Absolutely; they've got the heart. The problem isn't them, for once; it's that I don't believe for a split second any of those three teams are going to pick right now for a conveniently-timed losing streak. It's just not gonna happen.
But, before you call me Mr. Doom and Gloom, let me remind you this team is young, fast, and none of these guys have even begun to peak. It's quite the juxtaposition from a bunch of slow, aging, thirty-something guys. Consider this: with those teams, our best young player was Kyle Wellwood (and no, the Leafs didn't lack prospects because he ate all of the other ones. They just sucked). And this is to say nothing of comparing James Reimer, he of .920 SV%, to an older, slightly more drunk Eddie Belfour in 2005-06, and 72 games of Andrew Raycroft in 2006-07.
This, ladies and gentleman, is what we call a rebuilding team. And now, they're on the upswing. I said at the beginning of the season that this team reminded me of the 2007-08 Blackhawks, not because I think the Leafs are two years away from a Cup, but more because they're a young team on the right track who have competed their way just barely outside of the playoffs. Add a couple more puzzle pieces (specifically: a top six centreman to play with Kessel; a PMD to replace Kaberle- if not just bringing back Kaberle himself; a veteran goalie to back up Reimer that is actually fucking capable of posting a .900 SV%), and this is a playoff team.
Not convinced? Since January 1, the Leafs have posted a record of 24-13-6. Over a full season, playing like that is good for 45 wins and 95 points, which would put probably put the Leafs 6th in the East. And that is while losing players such as Kaberle, Beauchemin, and Versteeg, to boot. And while having Komisarek and Lebda on a defensive liability....erm, I mean pairing. Barring injuries to half of our top six forwards, or Reimer pulling the Full Steve Mason, this 2011 edition of the Leafs is going to be like the Leafs you'll see in 2011-12. Even in a worst case scenario, 2012-13.
So, I think we'll see you next spring. We'll be back, with a vengeance. And, fans of other teams: believe us when we say we remember what you said about us, and we're gonna be giant assholes about it when we get there.
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